Mint production totals for Jan-Nov 2009:
1cent = 2.354 B
5cents = 86.64 M
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 533.92 M
50cents = 3.80 M
1dollar = 423.64 M (including 71.26 M native dollars)
By subtraction, isolated November 2009 totals are:
1cent = 61.6 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 11.8 M
50cents = none
1dollar = 2.66 M (all Presidents)
Total coins: 76.06 M
average value per coin = $0.082
Third-lowest monthly cent mintage since my records began 42 months ago.
Fourth consecutive month without nickels produced.
Seventh consecutive month without dimes produced.
Second-lowest monthly quarter mintage since my records began 42 months ago.
Dollar coins make up 12% of all 2009-dated coins produced so far. In comparison, dollar coins made up only 5% in 2008 and 7% in 2007.
Overall monthly production total was THE LOWEST of all 42 months in my records!
It is very unlikely the Mint will make more than 4 billion coins this year. The last year with under 4 billion minted was 1963. Back then, the US population was 190 million, and stamps cost 5 cents each.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Mint: Ocotober 2009
Mint data for Jan-Oct 2009 is here:
1cent = 2.2924 Billion
5cents = 86.64 Million
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 522.12 M
50cents = 3.80 M
1dollar = 420.98 M (including 71.26 M native american dollars)
By subtracting the Jan-Sep totals, we get October only:
1cent = 266.0 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 52.6 M
50cents = 200,000
1dollar = 35.0 M (all Presidents)
Like last month, the Mint upped the number of half dollars. Last time, it was Denver's turn; now it's Philly's turn and by the same amount, too.
Third straight month without nickels. Sixth straight month without dimes.
One out of every eight 2009 coins is a dollar coin.
I predict that the final mintage totals for 2009 won't break four billion coins.
1cent = 2.2924 Billion
5cents = 86.64 Million
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 522.12 M
50cents = 3.80 M
1dollar = 420.98 M (including 71.26 M native american dollars)
By subtracting the Jan-Sep totals, we get October only:
1cent = 266.0 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 52.6 M
50cents = 200,000
1dollar = 35.0 M (all Presidents)
Like last month, the Mint upped the number of half dollars. Last time, it was Denver's turn; now it's Philly's turn and by the same amount, too.
Third straight month without nickels. Sixth straight month without dimes.
One out of every eight 2009 coins is a dollar coin.
I predict that the final mintage totals for 2009 won't break four billion coins.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
BEP: August 2009
BEP data for August 2009:
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/652)
$1 = 217.6 M
$2 = none
$5 = none
$10 = none
$20 = 70.4 M
$50 = none
$100 = 147.2 M
Average face value per note = $37.56
Fewest $1s since February 2009.
Fourth consecutive month without $5s. Fifth consecutive month without $10s or $50s.
Fewest $100s since January 2009.
The $100-bill printing binge continues. Its cause remains a mystery.
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/652)
$1 = 217.6 M
$2 = none
$5 = none
$10 = none
$20 = 70.4 M
$50 = none
$100 = 147.2 M
Average face value per note = $37.56
Fewest $1s since February 2009.
Fourth consecutive month without $5s. Fifth consecutive month without $10s or $50s.
Fewest $100s since January 2009.
The $100-bill printing binge continues. Its cause remains a mystery.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Mint: September 2009
Mint data for Jan-Sep 2009:
1cent = 2.0264 B
5cents = 86.64 M
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 469.52 M
50cents = 3.6 M
1dollar = 385.98 M (including 71.26 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-Aug totals isolates September alone:
1cent = 93.2 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 27.8 M
50cents = 200,000 (!)
1dollar = 60.76 M (39.7 M Presidents, 21.06 M Native American dollars)
Average face value per coin = $0.378
Lowest month for cents since December 2008 (or lowest non-December month for cents since my records begin in June 2006).
Second consecutive month without nickels, and fifth consecutive month without dimes. Neither has happened before since I began watching this data in June 2006.
Surprise! 200,000 half dollars are reported! And they're all from the Denver Mint, too. Usually the Mint makes all of the year's half dollars up front at the beginning of the year, so this is exceptionally weird. I'm not sure if this reflects actual production of new 2009 halves, or if the Mint just discovered and corrected for an update in their earlier report.
Dollar coins keep coming on strong, being the second-most-produced coin for the month of September. Biggest month for dollars since January 2009. Oddly, one third of September's dollars are the Native American type, the first reported since May 2009.
Overall for the Mint, slowest month for total output since December 2007 (or lowest non-December month since my records begin in June 2006).
1cent = 2.0264 B
5cents = 86.64 M
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 469.52 M
50cents = 3.6 M
1dollar = 385.98 M (including 71.26 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-Aug totals isolates September alone:
1cent = 93.2 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 27.8 M
50cents = 200,000 (!)
1dollar = 60.76 M (39.7 M Presidents, 21.06 M Native American dollars)
Average face value per coin = $0.378
Lowest month for cents since December 2008 (or lowest non-December month for cents since my records begin in June 2006).
Second consecutive month without nickels, and fifth consecutive month without dimes. Neither has happened before since I began watching this data in June 2006.
Surprise! 200,000 half dollars are reported! And they're all from the Denver Mint, too. Usually the Mint makes all of the year's half dollars up front at the beginning of the year, so this is exceptionally weird. I'm not sure if this reflects actual production of new 2009 halves, or if the Mint just discovered and corrected for an update in their earlier report.
Dollar coins keep coming on strong, being the second-most-produced coin for the month of September. Biggest month for dollars since January 2009. Oddly, one third of September's dollars are the Native American type, the first reported since May 2009.
Overall for the Mint, slowest month for total output since December 2007 (or lowest non-December month since my records begin in June 2006).
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Mint: August 2009
Mint data for August 2009 is here.
Jan-Aug 2009:
1cent = 1.9332 Billion
5cents = 86.64 Million
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 441.72 M
50cents = 3.4 M
1dollar = 325.22 M (including 51.1 M Native dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-July data gives results just for August:
1cent = 286.8 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 62.6 M
50cents = none
1dollar = 2.24 M (all Presidents)
August was the most productive month for cents since January.
After two months of trace production, nickel mintages have ceased again.
This is the fourth consecutive month without dimes.
August was the slowest month for dollars since November 2008.
Fun Fact: Compared to 31 August 2008, cent mintages are only 54% of what they were last year.
If my year-end projections hold true, I predict the final 2009 mintages to be:
1cent: 2.8 billion, the lowest since 1966
5cents: 130 million, the lowest since 1967
10cents: 150 million, the lowest since 1955
25cents: 660 million, the lowest since 1977
1dollar: 490 million, the best non-debut year for small dollars since introduction in 1979.
Total Output: 4.3 billion coins, the lowest since 1963
Jan-Aug 2009:
1cent = 1.9332 Billion
5cents = 86.64 Million
10cents = 146.0 M
25cents = 441.72 M
50cents = 3.4 M
1dollar = 325.22 M (including 51.1 M Native dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-July data gives results just for August:
1cent = 286.8 M
5cents = none
10cents = none
25cents = 62.6 M
50cents = none
1dollar = 2.24 M (all Presidents)
August was the most productive month for cents since January.
After two months of trace production, nickel mintages have ceased again.
This is the fourth consecutive month without dimes.
August was the slowest month for dollars since November 2008.
Fun Fact: Compared to 31 August 2008, cent mintages are only 54% of what they were last year.
If my year-end projections hold true, I predict the final 2009 mintages to be:
1cent: 2.8 billion, the lowest since 1966
5cents: 130 million, the lowest since 1967
10cents: 150 million, the lowest since 1955
25cents: 660 million, the lowest since 1977
1dollar: 490 million, the best non-debut year for small dollars since introduction in 1979.
Total Output: 4.3 billion coins, the lowest since 1963
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Mint: July 2009
Mint data for Jan-July 2009 is out.
1cent: 1.6464 B
5cents: 86.64 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 379.12 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 322.98 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the July data from the Jan-June totals:
1cent: 272.0 M
5cents: 6.96 M
10cents: none
25cents: 13.0 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 29.4 M (all Presidents)
2009 nickel production has resumed. July had the strongest showing of nickels since April, though levels are still down 80% from last year. Dimes still have not resumed production.
The 13 million quarters in July is the second lowest month for quarters since my records began in June 2006. It's not often that dollar coin production trumps quarter production, but this is one of those times.
1cent: 1.6464 B
5cents: 86.64 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 379.12 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 322.98 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the July data from the Jan-June totals:
1cent: 272.0 M
5cents: 6.96 M
10cents: none
25cents: 13.0 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 29.4 M (all Presidents)
2009 nickel production has resumed. July had the strongest showing of nickels since April, though levels are still down 80% from last year. Dimes still have not resumed production.
The 13 million quarters in July is the second lowest month for quarters since my records began in June 2006. It's not often that dollar coin production trumps quarter production, but this is one of those times.
BEP: July 2009
BEP data for July 2009:
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/651)
$1 = 236.8 M
$2 = none
$5 = none
$10 = none
$20 = 51.2 M
$50 = none
$100 = 150.4 M
Total notes = 438.4 M
Average value per note = $37.18
Fewest $1 notes since March 2009.
Third consecutive month without $5 notes, the longest period in my records back to 2002.
Fourth consecutive month without $10 notes.
Fewest $20 and $100 notes since January 2009.
Fewest total notes since December 2007.
The BEP has been on a $100 note printing bender this fiscal year, the likes of which have not been seen in this decade. $100 note production for 2009 is already 70% higher than the average annual production from FY2003-FY2008, with two more months of FY09 to go. Why the surge? Here are my theories:
- Foreign demand for the physical greenback is up as citizens of developing nations flee to the security of the USD. Remember, Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador officially use the dollar, and hyperinflated Zimbabwe is de facto on the USD too. This could also be the work of increased demand from currency market speculators.
- The BEP has quietly updated the note's design, and is ramping up a print run of the new notes. A $100 note redesign was announced in late 2007, comparable to the colorization of the $5, $10, $20, and $50 notes in recent years. Yet no formal proclamation has yet been made, no curtain pulled back on a colorized $100.
- In a steep recession, with credit markets locked up, many Americans have given up on their credit cards, and are resorting to cash transactions. (On second thought, this theory doesn't work. If more transactions were in cash, we'd see a corresponding increase in smaller bills and coins, which isn't happening.)
- People are nervous about the future economy, and are hoarding $100 bills.
- Plain old-fashioned inflation. People simply need larger bills than they used to, and some critical point has been passed where banks are giving out $100 notes in place of several $20s.
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/651)
$1 = 236.8 M
$2 = none
$5 = none
$10 = none
$20 = 51.2 M
$50 = none
$100 = 150.4 M
Total notes = 438.4 M
Average value per note = $37.18
Fewest $1 notes since March 2009.
Third consecutive month without $5 notes, the longest period in my records back to 2002.
Fourth consecutive month without $10 notes.
Fewest $20 and $100 notes since January 2009.
Fewest total notes since December 2007.
The BEP has been on a $100 note printing bender this fiscal year, the likes of which have not been seen in this decade. $100 note production for 2009 is already 70% higher than the average annual production from FY2003-FY2008, with two more months of FY09 to go. Why the surge? Here are my theories:
- Foreign demand for the physical greenback is up as citizens of developing nations flee to the security of the USD. Remember, Panama, Ecuador, and El Salvador officially use the dollar, and hyperinflated Zimbabwe is de facto on the USD too. This could also be the work of increased demand from currency market speculators.
- The BEP has quietly updated the note's design, and is ramping up a print run of the new notes. A $100 note redesign was announced in late 2007, comparable to the colorization of the $5, $10, $20, and $50 notes in recent years. Yet no formal proclamation has yet been made, no curtain pulled back on a colorized $100.
- In a steep recession, with credit markets locked up, many Americans have given up on their credit cards, and are resorting to cash transactions. (On second thought, this theory doesn't work. If more transactions were in cash, we'd see a corresponding increase in smaller bills and coins, which isn't happening.)
- People are nervous about the future economy, and are hoarding $100 bills.
- Plain old-fashioned inflation. People simply need larger bills than they used to, and some critical point has been passed where banks are giving out $100 notes in place of several $20s.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Mint: June 2009
Jan-June 2009 totals for the US Mint:
1cent: 1,374.4 Million
5cents: 79.68 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 366.12 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 293.58 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the June numbers:
1cent: 228.8 M
5cents: 480,000
10cents: none
25cents: 69.2 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 55.3 M (all presidents)
This marks the first meager production of 2009 nickels since April 23, when nickel and dime production was indefinitely halted. Dime production has not yet resumed.
P and D mintmarks for nickels are at parity, while P dimes outnumber Ds by two to one.
By quantity so far, dollars are the third-most minted coin of 2009.
If my predictions hold for the rest of the year, 2009 could be the lowest cent mintage since 1966, the lowest nickel mintage since 1951, the lowest dime mintage since 1955, the lowest quarter production since 1977, and overall the lowest Mint output since 1963.
1cent: 1,374.4 Million
5cents: 79.68 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 366.12 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 293.58 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the June numbers:
1cent: 228.8 M
5cents: 480,000
10cents: none
25cents: 69.2 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 55.3 M (all presidents)
This marks the first meager production of 2009 nickels since April 23, when nickel and dime production was indefinitely halted. Dime production has not yet resumed.
P and D mintmarks for nickels are at parity, while P dimes outnumber Ds by two to one.
By quantity so far, dollars are the third-most minted coin of 2009.
If my predictions hold for the rest of the year, 2009 could be the lowest cent mintage since 1966, the lowest nickel mintage since 1951, the lowest dime mintage since 1955, the lowest quarter production since 1977, and overall the lowest Mint output since 1963.
Mint: May 2009
Mint data is here for Jan-May 2009 coin production:
1cent: 1.1456 B
5cents: 79.2 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 296.92 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 238.28 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the May numbers:
1cent: 281.2 M
5cents: none
10cents: none
25cents: 39.8 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 31.92 M
Average face value per coin: $0.127
The Mint followed through with their April 23 announcement to indefinitely suspend the mintage of nickels and dimes. Neither denomination were produced in May. This leaves cents, quarters, and dollars as the only coins still being produced. Incidentally, these are also the only denominations with non-permanent designs.
1cent: 1.1456 B
5cents: 79.2 M
10cents: 146.0 M
25cents: 296.92 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 238.28 M (including 51.1 Native dollars)
Isolating the May numbers:
1cent: 281.2 M
5cents: none
10cents: none
25cents: 39.8 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 31.92 M
Average face value per coin: $0.127
The Mint followed through with their April 23 announcement to indefinitely suspend the mintage of nickels and dimes. Neither denomination were produced in May. This leaves cents, quarters, and dollars as the only coins still being produced. Incidentally, these are also the only denominations with non-permanent designs.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
BEP: June 2009
BEP data for June 2009:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/648
$1: 332.8 M
$2: none
$5: none
$10: none
$20: 70.4 M
$50: none
$100: 153.6 M
Average value per bill: $30.71
With the exception of some $5s, this is the third consecutive month with only $1, $20, and $100 bills produced, which is unusual. Further, the production levels of $20 and $100 bills has been notably consistent.
BEP: May 2009
BEP data for May 2009:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/647
$1: 390.4 M
$2: none
$5: none
$10: none
$20: 70.4 M
$50: none
$100: 150.4 M
Average value per bill: $27.55
Highest $1 production since August 2007.
Lowest $100 since January 2009.
BEP: April 2009
April 2009 BEP data here:
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/646)
$1: 313.6 Million
$5: 76.8 M
$10: none
$20: 70.4 M
$50: none
$100: 156.8 M
Average value per note: $28.80
Most $1 bills since September 2008. Lowest average value since September 2008. These are probably related.
First month without $10 bills since August 2007.
First month without $50 bills since November 2008.
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/646)
$1: 313.6 Million
$5: 76.8 M
$10: none
$20: 70.4 M
$50: none
$100: 156.8 M
Average value per note: $28.80
Most $1 bills since September 2008. Lowest average value since September 2008. These are probably related.
First month without $10 bills since August 2007.
First month without $50 bills since November 2008.
Mint: April 2009
Mintage figures for Jan-April 2009 are out:
(http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/coin_production/index.cfm?action=production_figures&allCoinsYear=2009#starthere)
1 cent = 864.4 Million
5 cents = 79.2 M
10 cents = 146.0 M
25 cents = 257.12 M
50 cents = 3.4 M
1 dollar = 206.36 M (including 19.18 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-March data gives the mintages just in April:
1 cent = 229.6 M
5 cents = 9.84 M
10 cents = 26.0 M
25 cents = 46.12 M
50 cents = none
1 dollar = 47.04 M (including 11.2 M Native American dollars)
Average value per coin = $0.178
These numbers are much larger than those from March, but they are still sparse compared to pre-recession monthly totals.
Note the high numbers of Native American dollars, 58% of the dollar coins produced this month. This more than doubles the number of 2009 Natives. If you were speculating on the Philly Sacagawea mintages to remain under one million, scrap those plans now.
The real big story this month is the Mint's announcement on April 23 that they are temporarily suspending the production of nickels and dimes for the indefinite future, citing lack of demand by commerce as the reason. Here's the whole story:
(http://www.coinnews.net/2009/04/29/us-mint-halts-2009-nickels-and-dimes-production/)
The last time the Mint halted all production lines for at least one denomination was in 1931. It's time for a history lesson.
Sometime into 1931, the Mint stopped producing nickels and dimes, and did not resume until 1934. Cent production for each year during 1931-1933 was less than 12% of the 1930 mintage. Quarters were not struck in 1931 or 1933*. No half dollars were minted in 1930 through 1932, and 1933 levels were scant. Silver dollars ceased altogether from 1929-1933.
Prior to the Great Depression, the only other notable Mint stoppage in the 20th century was after World War I. The production levels in 1921 were unusually light for all denomenations. In 1922, only a handful of cents and silver dollars were produced. Mintages were restored to pre-war levels in 1923.
It is yet another scary parallel between the Panic of 2008 and the Great Depression of 1929. Hold on to your hats, citizens!
*The Washington quarter made its debut in 1932. It was intended as a one-shot commemorative series, but the design proved popular enough that it entered general production in 1934.
(http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/coin_production/index.cfm?action=production_figures&allCoinsYear=2009#starthere)
1 cent = 864.4 Million
5 cents = 79.2 M
10 cents = 146.0 M
25 cents = 257.12 M
50 cents = 3.4 M
1 dollar = 206.36 M (including 19.18 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-March data gives the mintages just in April:
1 cent = 229.6 M
5 cents = 9.84 M
10 cents = 26.0 M
25 cents = 46.12 M
50 cents = none
1 dollar = 47.04 M (including 11.2 M Native American dollars)
Average value per coin = $0.178
These numbers are much larger than those from March, but they are still sparse compared to pre-recession monthly totals.
Note the high numbers of Native American dollars, 58% of the dollar coins produced this month. This more than doubles the number of 2009 Natives. If you were speculating on the Philly Sacagawea mintages to remain under one million, scrap those plans now.
The real big story this month is the Mint's announcement on April 23 that they are temporarily suspending the production of nickels and dimes for the indefinite future, citing lack of demand by commerce as the reason. Here's the whole story:
(http://www.coinnews.net/2009/04/29/us-mint-halts-2009-nickels-and-dimes-production/)
The last time the Mint halted all production lines for at least one denomination was in 1931. It's time for a history lesson.
Sometime into 1931, the Mint stopped producing nickels and dimes, and did not resume until 1934. Cent production for each year during 1931-1933 was less than 12% of the 1930 mintage. Quarters were not struck in 1931 or 1933*. No half dollars were minted in 1930 through 1932, and 1933 levels were scant. Silver dollars ceased altogether from 1929-1933.
Prior to the Great Depression, the only other notable Mint stoppage in the 20th century was after World War I. The production levels in 1921 were unusually light for all denomenations. In 1922, only a handful of cents and silver dollars were produced. Mintages were restored to pre-war levels in 1923.
It is yet another scary parallel between the Panic of 2008 and the Great Depression of 1929. Hold on to your hats, citizens!
*The Washington quarter made its debut in 1932. It was intended as a one-shot commemorative series, but the design proved popular enough that it entered general production in 1934.
Monday, April 13, 2009
BEP: March 2009
BEP data for March 2009 is released:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/645
$1: 236.8 M
$5: 76.8 M
$10: 12.8 M
$20: 76.8 M
$50: 32.0 M
$100: 182.4 M
Average value per bill: $35.82
Most $1 bills since October 2008.
First printing of $5s in three months.
Fewest $10s produced since August 2007.
Most $20s since September 2008.
Second-highest production of $100s since March 2003. Ever since the Dow plunged in October 2008, there has been a sustained increase in production of these notes.
Average value per bill is lowest since August 2008. This is due to the increase in $1s and $5s and reduction in $10s and $50s.
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/645
$1: 236.8 M
$5: 76.8 M
$10: 12.8 M
$20: 76.8 M
$50: 32.0 M
$100: 182.4 M
Average value per bill: $35.82
Most $1 bills since October 2008.
First printing of $5s in three months.
Fewest $10s produced since August 2007.
Most $20s since September 2008.
Second-highest production of $100s since March 2003. Ever since the Dow plunged in October 2008, there has been a sustained increase in production of these notes.
Average value per bill is lowest since August 2008. This is due to the increase in $1s and $5s and reduction in $10s and $50s.
Mint: March 2009
Jan-March '09 data has been posted for the Mint:
http://usmint.gov/about_the_mint/coin_production/index.cfm?action=production_figures&allCoinsYear=2009#starthere
1cent: 634.8 Million
5cents: 69.36 M
10cents: 120.0 M
25cents: 211.0 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 159.32 M (including 7.98 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-Feb subtotals yields the March monthly data:
1cent: 98.0 M
5cents: 16.08 M
10cents: 11.0 M
25cents: 200,000!
50cents: none
1dollar: 39.76 M (all presidents)
TOTAL: 165.04 M
Average value per coin: $0.259
March was a shockingly low month at the Mint! This is the most dramatic drop in production since the recession began in December 2007. It is very unusual for the Mint to cut back this significantly while partway into the year.
This is the 34th month I've been tracking the Mint's monthly data, and many of March's mintages are noteworthy during that period:
- third fewest cents in a month
- fourth fewest nickels
- second fewest dimes
- fewest quarters
The Mint completed their 2009 half dollar production in January, while the dollar coin production is not that much lower than other recent months.
I've extrapolated the Jan-March data out for the rest of the year. My estimates have a large uncertainty, but let's assume that they are within 20% of the final numbers. If so, 2009 will have the lowest Mint output since 1966. The 2009 numbers would be 47% of the 2008 total, 31% of the 2006 peak, and only 17% of the Y2K mintage record. I had predicted that 2008 yielded many key dates of modern coin series, but the 2009 mintages look like they'll be drastically lower, making the 2009 coins into future key dates after all.
It looks like the demand for state quarters has not followed through to the territory quarters. Less DC and Puerto Rico quarters have been produced than just the Nevada-D state quarter alone. I think hard times have driven plenty of collectors to (attempt to) cash in their state quarter collections. When they find out that state quarters have little value over 25 cents, even for a full set, back into circulation they go. This and reduced consumer spending have diminished new coin demand down to a trickle.
What does this mean for the economy? The last time the Mint had a dry spell in production this deep and this prolonged was 1929 to 1933. What do you conclude from this?
http://usmint.gov/about_the_mint/coin_production/index.cfm?action=production_figures&allCoinsYear=2009#starthere
1cent: 634.8 Million
5cents: 69.36 M
10cents: 120.0 M
25cents: 211.0 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 159.32 M (including 7.98 M Native American dollars)
Subtracting out the Jan-Feb subtotals yields the March monthly data:
1cent: 98.0 M
5cents: 16.08 M
10cents: 11.0 M
25cents: 200,000!
50cents: none
1dollar: 39.76 M (all presidents)
TOTAL: 165.04 M
Average value per coin: $0.259
March was a shockingly low month at the Mint! This is the most dramatic drop in production since the recession began in December 2007. It is very unusual for the Mint to cut back this significantly while partway into the year.
This is the 34th month I've been tracking the Mint's monthly data, and many of March's mintages are noteworthy during that period:
- third fewest cents in a month
- fourth fewest nickels
- second fewest dimes
- fewest quarters
The Mint completed their 2009 half dollar production in January, while the dollar coin production is not that much lower than other recent months.
I've extrapolated the Jan-March data out for the rest of the year. My estimates have a large uncertainty, but let's assume that they are within 20% of the final numbers. If so, 2009 will have the lowest Mint output since 1966. The 2009 numbers would be 47% of the 2008 total, 31% of the 2006 peak, and only 17% of the Y2K mintage record. I had predicted that 2008 yielded many key dates of modern coin series, but the 2009 mintages look like they'll be drastically lower, making the 2009 coins into future key dates after all.
It looks like the demand for state quarters has not followed through to the territory quarters. Less DC and Puerto Rico quarters have been produced than just the Nevada-D state quarter alone. I think hard times have driven plenty of collectors to (attempt to) cash in their state quarter collections. When they find out that state quarters have little value over 25 cents, even for a full set, back into circulation they go. This and reduced consumer spending have diminished new coin demand down to a trickle.
What does this mean for the economy? The last time the Mint had a dry spell in production this deep and this prolonged was 1929 to 1933. What do you conclude from this?
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
BEP: February 2009
BEP data for February 2009:
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/644)
$1: 137.6 M
$5: none
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 57.6 M
$50: 134.4 M
$100: 166.4 M
average value per bill: $45.16
Highest average value since my records begin in October 2002.
No $5s printed this month, or last month either. Most recent two consecutive months with no $5s printed was November - December, 2004.
Number of $10s and $50s are unusually identical to January 2009 values.
Over the last four months (November 2008 - February 2009), monthly production of $1 bills has been at six-year lows. In same period, $50 bill production and the average bill value have been at six-year highs. These trends are probably related.
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/644)
$1: 137.6 M
$5: none
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 57.6 M
$50: 134.4 M
$100: 166.4 M
average value per bill: $45.16
Highest average value since my records begin in October 2002.
No $5s printed this month, or last month either. Most recent two consecutive months with no $5s printed was November - December, 2004.
Number of $10s and $50s are unusually identical to January 2009 values.
Over the last four months (November 2008 - February 2009), monthly production of $1 bills has been at six-year lows. In same period, $50 bill production and the average bill value have been at six-year highs. These trends are probably related.
Mint: February 2009
The Mint has released the February 2009 totals:
1cent: 536.8 M
5cents: 53.28 M
10cents: 109.0 M
25cents: 210.8 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 119.56 M (including 7.98 M Sacagaweas)
Subtracting out the January numbers:
1cent: 242.8 M
5cents: 39.12 M
10cents: 56.5 M
25cents: 139.0 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 42.0 M
Total coins: 519.42 M
Average value per coin: $0.167
Year-over-Year (YoY) data comparing Feb'09/Feb'08:
1cent: down 43%
5cents: down 42%
10cents: down 38%
25cents: down 35%
overall: down 36%
Keep in mind that the 2008 numbers were low to begin with. I had previously considered that 2008 would be the key dates to many future collections, but it looks like 2009 might have even lower mintages.
Where are the Denver Sacagaweas? Only 700,000 minted so far, compared to 7.28 million Phillies.
1cent: 536.8 M
5cents: 53.28 M
10cents: 109.0 M
25cents: 210.8 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 119.56 M (including 7.98 M Sacagaweas)
Subtracting out the January numbers:
1cent: 242.8 M
5cents: 39.12 M
10cents: 56.5 M
25cents: 139.0 M
50cents: none
1dollar: 42.0 M
Total coins: 519.42 M
Average value per coin: $0.167
Year-over-Year (YoY) data comparing Feb'09/Feb'08:
1cent: down 43%
5cents: down 42%
10cents: down 38%
25cents: down 35%
overall: down 36%
Keep in mind that the 2008 numbers were low to begin with. I had previously considered that 2008 would be the key dates to many future collections, but it looks like 2009 might have even lower mintages.
Where are the Denver Sacagaweas? Only 700,000 minted so far, compared to 7.28 million Phillies.
BEP: January 2009
BEP data for January 2009:
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/642)
$1: 121.6 Million
$5: none
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 51.2 M
$50: 134.4 M
$100: 121.6 M
Average Value per bill: $41.94
Last time there were no $5 bills printed in a month was September 2007.
Most $50 bills printed in a month since my records begin in October 2002.
(http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/642)
$1: 121.6 Million
$5: none
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 51.2 M
$50: 134.4 M
$100: 121.6 M
Average Value per bill: $41.94
Last time there were no $5 bills printed in a month was September 2007.
Most $50 bills printed in a month since my records begin in October 2002.
Monday, February 9, 2009
US Mint: January 2009
US MINT: coin production for January 2009:
These are the numbers for January. No subtracting of the previous month is necessary this time.
1 cent = 294.0 M
5 cents = 14.16 M
10 cents = 52.50 M
25 cents = 71.80 M
50 cents = 3.40 M
1 dollar = 77.56 M (7.98 M Sacagawea dollars + 69.58 M presidential dollars)
AVERAGE VALUE per COIN = $0.207
Fewest nickels since December 2007.
Fewest quarters since my records begin in June 2006.
The first striking of half dollars since January 2008, and probably the only striking of halves for the year. The mintages are identical to those from last year.
Highest quantity of dollars struck since January 2008.
January is generally a ramping up time for the Mint, when they get back into full production from the usual December respite. It makes the YoY data screwy, but overall this January was down 37% from January 2008.
These are the numbers for January. No subtracting of the previous month is necessary this time.
1 cent = 294.0 M
5 cents = 14.16 M
10 cents = 52.50 M
25 cents = 71.80 M
50 cents = 3.40 M
1 dollar = 77.56 M (7.98 M Sacagawea dollars + 69.58 M presidential dollars)
AVERAGE VALUE per COIN = $0.207
Fewest nickels since December 2007.
Fewest quarters since my records begin in June 2006.
The first striking of half dollars since January 2008, and probably the only striking of halves for the year. The mintages are identical to those from last year.
Highest quantity of dollars struck since January 2008.
January is generally a ramping up time for the Mint, when they get back into full production from the usual December respite. It makes the YoY data screwy, but overall this January was down 37% from January 2008.
BEP: December 2008
BEP, bill production for December 2008:
$1 = 134.4 M
$5 = 32.0 M
$10 = 64.0 M
$20 = 51.2 M
$50 = 48.0 M
$100 = 183.68 M
AVERAGE VALUE per BILL = $44.28
Fewest $1 bills since my records begin in October 2002.
Fewest $5 bills since September 2007.
First batch of $50 bills printed since March 2007.
Most $100 bills printed since March 2003.
Very high average value per bill since $50s and $100s are up and $1s and $5s are down. The demand for small bills has diminished while the value for larger bills has increased. Are people parking their credit cards and using cash for purhases more often these days, drawing more large bills out of their bank accounts? I'd say no. If the large bills were in demand for spending, then we'd also see a rise in small bills needed for making change. That's not the case, so these big bills aren't being spent. The opposite could be happening... people are holding on to big bills, socking them away somewhere. And if they're not spending cash, they don't need cash in change, which explains the fall in small bill demand.
$1 = 134.4 M
$5 = 32.0 M
$10 = 64.0 M
$20 = 51.2 M
$50 = 48.0 M
$100 = 183.68 M
AVERAGE VALUE per BILL = $44.28
Fewest $1 bills since my records begin in October 2002.
Fewest $5 bills since September 2007.
First batch of $50 bills printed since March 2007.
Most $100 bills printed since March 2003.
Very high average value per bill since $50s and $100s are up and $1s and $5s are down. The demand for small bills has diminished while the value for larger bills has increased. Are people parking their credit cards and using cash for purhases more often these days, drawing more large bills out of their bank accounts? I'd say no. If the large bills were in demand for spending, then we'd also see a rise in small bills needed for making change. That's not the case, so these big bills aren't being spent. The opposite could be happening... people are holding on to big bills, socking them away somewhere. And if they're not spending cash, they don't need cash in change, which explains the fall in small bill demand.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
2008: Year in Review
When it comes to circulating coins, I will always remember 2008 as the Mint's fallow year.
When I was a child, the new year didn't really sink in for me until I found a new coin bearing the new unfamiliar date. This is still true for me as an adult today. So every year, I watch for the new coins to visit my pockets. Usually I see new coins in February or March, but this year I had to wait until May before I spotted my first 2008 in the wild, a penny. (Oddly that first one was a Denver, not a Philly, which was even more unusual here in DC.) The last of the common four denominations, the dime, didn't show up until September. I never recall it being this hard to find new coinage in circulation, and that speaks volumes about the severity of the current recession.
The Mint's total quantity of new coins this year was 10.14 billion, the lowest since 1973. Every denomination saw mintage cutbacks this year, though it isn't clear why yet. Was there an adequate surplus of coinage leftover from 2007 to meet commercial demand this year? Is the hard economy driving people to cash in their change jars? Is tight credit driving some consumers away from credit cards and back to cash? Is the green movement getting us to reuse our existing coinage? Or are we the USA slowly going towards electronic money?
Dollar coins fared the best in 2008, with 489 million coins produced. That's 51% of the 2007 dollars, and the best second-year showing for any small dollar program. Previously, the Sacagawea dollar mintage fell to 10.4% from 2000 to 2001 and the Susan Anthony dollar mintage fell to 11.8% from 1979 to 1980. Compared to previous programs, the presidential dollar program is having a stupendous sophomore year, whether due to collector demand or bona fide business usage. I've not written the President dollars off as a failure.
The 50 state quarter program came to a close in this its final year. 2.54 million new quarters were made, making 2008 the third lowest year for state quarters after 2003 and 2004. Quarter mintages are down 9% from 2007, and are only 39% compared to the peak of the state quarter program in 2000. That said, collector demand for state quarters meant that 2008 mintages are still higher than any pre-1999 quarter mintage. I'll be curious to see what happens to mintages for the territories quarters in '09 and the National Parks quarters starting in 2010. If collectors follow through on their threats to ignore these series, then I expect quarter mintages will return to Nineties levels.
Next we have the diminutive but potent dime. One billion dimes were made in 2008, the lowest annual total since 1979 (705 million). This is down 50% from 2007, and down 71% from the peak in 2000. Unlike for nickels and pennies, the demand for dimes has been trending upward for the last twenty years.
The nickel mintages this year were the lowest of the new Jefferson forward design (the "Franki nickel"), with 641 million minted. This is the lowest since 1975 (584 million). Mintages of nickels are down 47% from 2007, and down 73% since 2000. I expect the circulating population of 2008 nickels to thin out quickly, and within a few years it might be easier to spot a 1964 nickel in the wild than a 2008 nickel.
2008 is the swan song for the venerated Memorial Lincoln cents, first introduced in 1959. The cent's reverse gets a makeover series in 2009 celebrating the 200th birthday of Honest Abe. 2008 was also the 26th year of production for the zinc-core cent, which replaced solid bronze in 1982. The cent mintages for 2008 were 5.42 billion, the lowest since 1971 (5.36 billion). Both the Philly and Denver 2008 cents have the lowest mintages for all zinc memorial cents, and will be future key dates for the series. Cent collectors in the 2040s will be chasing 2008 cents the way we chase after 1955s now.
Let's not forget the half dollar. They're still making halves. For almost all of us, the half dollar is the rarest of modern US coins to find in the wild, where they haven't circulated in decades. 2001 was the last true year for half dollar mintages for circulation. The Mint has been making trace amounts of halves since then, exclusively for Mint sets and numismatists, and 2008 was no exception. Only 3.4 million halves were produced in 2008, the lowest year since 1970. (In 1970, the Mint did not strike halves for circulation, either, but as an exception rather than the rule.)
So, what does this mean for 2009? With a collectible series running for the cent, quarter, and dollar, expect collector demand to prop up the mintages for those denominations. The real bellwether of change in coinage demand will be seen in the mintages of nickels and dimes. My prediction is for nickel and dime production to stay level with 2008 mintages, and for the series coins to have a mintage increase of 5-10% over 2008. With unemployment still rising, many retailers on a bankruptcy death watch, a credit market still paralyzed with fear of risk, foreclosures and unsold housing inventories still climbing, and consumer spending hitting lows unseen since the Sixties, I do not expect the US economy to improve over 2009. We will be lucky not to slide downward even further from our position at the end of 2008. Regardless of plans by Democrats for economic relief, the fundamentals of a shrinking economy haven't changed. I do not expect recovery to begin until the fundamentals have turned around.
When I was a child, the new year didn't really sink in for me until I found a new coin bearing the new unfamiliar date. This is still true for me as an adult today. So every year, I watch for the new coins to visit my pockets. Usually I see new coins in February or March, but this year I had to wait until May before I spotted my first 2008 in the wild, a penny. (Oddly that first one was a Denver, not a Philly, which was even more unusual here in DC.) The last of the common four denominations, the dime, didn't show up until September. I never recall it being this hard to find new coinage in circulation, and that speaks volumes about the severity of the current recession.
The Mint's total quantity of new coins this year was 10.14 billion, the lowest since 1973. Every denomination saw mintage cutbacks this year, though it isn't clear why yet. Was there an adequate surplus of coinage leftover from 2007 to meet commercial demand this year? Is the hard economy driving people to cash in their change jars? Is tight credit driving some consumers away from credit cards and back to cash? Is the green movement getting us to reuse our existing coinage? Or are we the USA slowly going towards electronic money?
Dollar coins fared the best in 2008, with 489 million coins produced. That's 51% of the 2007 dollars, and the best second-year showing for any small dollar program. Previously, the Sacagawea dollar mintage fell to 10.4% from 2000 to 2001 and the Susan Anthony dollar mintage fell to 11.8% from 1979 to 1980. Compared to previous programs, the presidential dollar program is having a stupendous sophomore year, whether due to collector demand or bona fide business usage. I've not written the President dollars off as a failure.
The 50 state quarter program came to a close in this its final year. 2.54 million new quarters were made, making 2008 the third lowest year for state quarters after 2003 and 2004. Quarter mintages are down 9% from 2007, and are only 39% compared to the peak of the state quarter program in 2000. That said, collector demand for state quarters meant that 2008 mintages are still higher than any pre-1999 quarter mintage. I'll be curious to see what happens to mintages for the territories quarters in '09 and the National Parks quarters starting in 2010. If collectors follow through on their threats to ignore these series, then I expect quarter mintages will return to Nineties levels.
Next we have the diminutive but potent dime. One billion dimes were made in 2008, the lowest annual total since 1979 (705 million). This is down 50% from 2007, and down 71% from the peak in 2000. Unlike for nickels and pennies, the demand for dimes has been trending upward for the last twenty years.
The nickel mintages this year were the lowest of the new Jefferson forward design (the "Franki nickel"), with 641 million minted. This is the lowest since 1975 (584 million). Mintages of nickels are down 47% from 2007, and down 73% since 2000. I expect the circulating population of 2008 nickels to thin out quickly, and within a few years it might be easier to spot a 1964 nickel in the wild than a 2008 nickel.
2008 is the swan song for the venerated Memorial Lincoln cents, first introduced in 1959. The cent's reverse gets a makeover series in 2009 celebrating the 200th birthday of Honest Abe. 2008 was also the 26th year of production for the zinc-core cent, which replaced solid bronze in 1982. The cent mintages for 2008 were 5.42 billion, the lowest since 1971 (5.36 billion). Both the Philly and Denver 2008 cents have the lowest mintages for all zinc memorial cents, and will be future key dates for the series. Cent collectors in the 2040s will be chasing 2008 cents the way we chase after 1955s now.
Let's not forget the half dollar. They're still making halves. For almost all of us, the half dollar is the rarest of modern US coins to find in the wild, where they haven't circulated in decades. 2001 was the last true year for half dollar mintages for circulation. The Mint has been making trace amounts of halves since then, exclusively for Mint sets and numismatists, and 2008 was no exception. Only 3.4 million halves were produced in 2008, the lowest year since 1970. (In 1970, the Mint did not strike halves for circulation, either, but as an exception rather than the rule.)
So, what does this mean for 2009? With a collectible series running for the cent, quarter, and dollar, expect collector demand to prop up the mintages for those denominations. The real bellwether of change in coinage demand will be seen in the mintages of nickels and dimes. My prediction is for nickel and dime production to stay level with 2008 mintages, and for the series coins to have a mintage increase of 5-10% over 2008. With unemployment still rising, many retailers on a bankruptcy death watch, a credit market still paralyzed with fear of risk, foreclosures and unsold housing inventories still climbing, and consumer spending hitting lows unseen since the Sixties, I do not expect the US economy to improve over 2009. We will be lucky not to slide downward even further from our position at the end of 2008. Regardless of plans by Democrats for economic relief, the fundamentals of a shrinking economy haven't changed. I do not expect recovery to begin until the fundamentals have turned around.
Mint: December 2008
December 2008 mintages have been released by the Mint, so the final annual totals are as follows:
1 cent: 5.4192 B
5 cents: 640.56 M
10 cents: 1.0505 B
25 cents: 2.5388 B
50 cents: 3.4 M
1 dollar: 489.12 M **
TOTAL: 10.14158 B
Subtracting out the Jan-Nov 2008 totals yields the data for December:
1 cent: 10.8 M
5 cents: 15.12 M
10 cents: 35.0 M
25 cents: 126.4 M
50 cents: none
1 dollar: 21.0 M **
TOTAL: 208.32 Million coins
Average value for coin: $0.273
As I expected, the Mint slowed to a crawl at the end of the year. They do this every December to retool and prepare for the new year. This is the fewest coins, both per denomination and in total, for any month of 2008.
** The Mint differentiates their dollar mintage between the Sacagawea dollars, reported as "golden dollars", and the Presidential dollars. No presidential dollars were added for December, so the 21 million dollars reported here are all Sacagaweas. I strongly suspect these are the new Native American dollars authorized by Congress. If so, these coins are dated 2009. I expect that they will be removed from the 2008 mintage table and added to the 2009 table within the next few months. (The Mint did something similar with dollar coins in the '07-'08 transition.) If the Mint changes the dollar mintages, I will post an update here accordingly.
1 cent: 5.4192 B
5 cents: 640.56 M
10 cents: 1.0505 B
25 cents: 2.5388 B
50 cents: 3.4 M
1 dollar: 489.12 M **
TOTAL: 10.14158 B
Subtracting out the Jan-Nov 2008 totals yields the data for December:
1 cent: 10.8 M
5 cents: 15.12 M
10 cents: 35.0 M
25 cents: 126.4 M
50 cents: none
1 dollar: 21.0 M **
TOTAL: 208.32 Million coins
Average value for coin: $0.273
As I expected, the Mint slowed to a crawl at the end of the year. They do this every December to retool and prepare for the new year. This is the fewest coins, both per denomination and in total, for any month of 2008.
** The Mint differentiates their dollar mintage between the Sacagawea dollars, reported as "golden dollars", and the Presidential dollars. No presidential dollars were added for December, so the 21 million dollars reported here are all Sacagaweas. I strongly suspect these are the new Native American dollars authorized by Congress. If so, these coins are dated 2009. I expect that they will be removed from the 2008 mintage table and added to the 2009 table within the next few months. (The Mint did something similar with dollar coins in the '07-'08 transition.) If the Mint changes the dollar mintages, I will post an update here accordingly.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
BEP: December 2008
BEP data for December 2008 is here:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/640
$1: 166.4 M
$5: 32.0 M
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 51.2 M
$50: 48.0 M
$100: 132.48 M
Average value per bill: $35.70
Lowest $5 bills since September 2007.
First $50 bills made since March 2007, 21 months ago.
Average value per bill still high due to low production of $10s and $20s, and higher production of $50s and $100s.
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/640
$1: 166.4 M
$5: 32.0 M
$10: 64.0 M
$20: 51.2 M
$50: 48.0 M
$100: 132.48 M
Average value per bill: $35.70
Lowest $5 bills since September 2007.
First $50 bills made since March 2007, 21 months ago.
Average value per bill still high due to low production of $10s and $20s, and higher production of $50s and $100s.
BEP: November 2008
BEP data for November 2008 is here:
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/640
$1: 153.6 M
$5: 83.2 M
$10: 51.2 M
$100: 166.4 M
Average value per bill: $39.00
Fewest quantity of total bills printed since December 2007.
Since May 2008, first month with no $20 bills, and fewest $5 bills.
Lowest $10 print run since August 2007.
In the last six years, since records began in October 2002, this month has the fewest $1 bills printed in a month.
Most $100 bills printed in a month since October 2007.
Because of the high $100 bill production and low $1 bill production, this month has the highest average bill value in at least six years.
http://www.bep.treas.gov/section.cfm/2/431/640
$1: 153.6 M
$5: 83.2 M
$10: 51.2 M
$100: 166.4 M
Average value per bill: $39.00
Fewest quantity of total bills printed since December 2007.
Since May 2008, first month with no $20 bills, and fewest $5 bills.
Lowest $10 print run since August 2007.
In the last six years, since records began in October 2002, this month has the fewest $1 bills printed in a month.
Most $100 bills printed in a month since October 2007.
Because of the high $100 bill production and low $1 bill production, this month has the highest average bill value in at least six years.
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