Mint: March 2009

Jan-March '09 data has been posted for the Mint:
http://usmint.gov/about_the_mint/coin_production/index.cfm?action=production_figures&allCoinsYear=2009#starthere

1cent: 634.8 Million
5cents: 69.36 M
10cents: 120.0 M
25cents: 211.0 M
50cents: 3.4 M
1dollar: 159.32 M (including 7.98 M Native American dollars)

Subtracting out the Jan-Feb subtotals yields the March monthly data:
1cent: 98.0 M
5cents: 16.08 M
10cents: 11.0 M
25cents: 200,000!
50cents: none
1dollar: 39.76 M (all presidents)
TOTAL: 165.04 M
Average value per coin: $0.259

March was a shockingly low month at the Mint! This is the most dramatic drop in production since the recession began in December 2007. It is very unusual for the Mint to cut back this significantly while partway into the year.

This is the 34th month I've been tracking the Mint's monthly data, and many of March's mintages are noteworthy during that period:
- third fewest cents in a month
- fourth fewest nickels
- second fewest dimes
- fewest quarters
The Mint completed their 2009 half dollar production in January, while the dollar coin production is not that much lower than other recent months.

I've extrapolated the Jan-March data out for the rest of the year. My estimates have a large uncertainty, but let's assume that they are within 20% of the final numbers. If so, 2009 will have the lowest Mint output since 1966. The 2009 numbers would be 47% of the 2008 total, 31% of the 2006 peak, and only 17% of the Y2K mintage record. I had predicted that 2008 yielded many key dates of modern coin series, but the 2009 mintages look like they'll be drastically lower, making the 2009 coins into future key dates after all.

It looks like the demand for state quarters has not followed through to the territory quarters. Less DC and Puerto Rico quarters have been produced than just the Nevada-D state quarter alone. I think hard times have driven plenty of collectors to (attempt to) cash in their state quarter collections. When they find out that state quarters have little value over 25 cents, even for a full set, back into circulation they go. This and reduced consumer spending have diminished new coin demand down to a trickle.

What does this mean for the economy? The last time the Mint had a dry spell in production this deep and this prolonged was 1929 to 1933. What do you conclude from this?